The Prigozhin Puzzle: What Just Happened in Russia?!
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The Prigozhin Puzzle: What Just Happened in Russia?!
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The shortest not-coup in history may have just not-happened in Russia. Yikes! Like a massage without a happy ending, how are we supposed to enjoy it, if it’s already over?
Twitter exploded in a pandora’s box of opinions, conspiracy theories and mudslinging—with the regular commentators posting a vast range of angles to explain Prigozhin and his band of mercenaries’ strange assault on Moscow (that didn’t happen.)
Darth Putin, the scathing Russia-phobic satirist had a field day. I could almost feel him vibrating with glee at the prospect of so much material for comedy:
Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, diehard Russophiles, like Scott Ritter resurrected the ghost of Qanon and claimed the CIA, MI6, Mossad and Ukrainian intelligence are all working with Prigozhin to stage a coup involving sleeper cells and terrorist attacks on Moscow. Wow. Soon the white hats will defeat the lizard-possessed Queen Elizabeth (who isn’t really dead because she’s locked up in Guantanamo Bay with Hillary.) And people say conspiracy theorists are crazy.
Meanwhile, back in the (former) USSR, a Google Trends search by Russian news outlet Verstka, reveals that Russians began searching more for Prigozhin in early May, with interest peaking by the end of the month. From May 28 to June 3, his popularity was at the level of 100 points (the peak level), while Putin’s was significantly less at 28.
Prigozhin is dubbed “Putin’s chef” by the people, because he first worked for the Kremlin as a caterer, organizing extravagant dinners for Russian officials. Searches for 'Putin's chef' peaked at 744,000 times in May, while there were just 305,000 searches for 'Vladimir Putin'
Wagner PMC is seen as the “people’s army” by many, gaining the populist vote. Prigozhin at his best, might be considered good-looking to an orc, but this may explain some of his appeal to the average Russian—because he’s not a slick and polished professional politician, unlike the Kremlin officials he despises.
Most of his derision is aimed at the Russian Department of Defence, however. Prigozhin went on an epic rant against the Russian DOD in April, describing them as ‘smelly scumbags’ and ‘bitches.’ He said he was ‘deeply outraged’ by Putin’s troops doing ‘fuck all’ to prevent explosive drones falling on the Kremlin.
“Smelly scumbags! What are you doing? Get your asses up from the offices you’ve been put in to protect this country,” he complained. “You are the Ministry of Defence. You’ve done fuck all in order to advance. Why the fuck are you allowing these drones to fly to Moscow? Who gives a shit that they are flying to your homes on Rublyovka! Let your houses burn.”
Prigozhin seemingly earned the support of exiled Russian oligarch, Mikhail Khodorkovsky who wrote on instagram, “We should help even the devil if he’s against this regime!” Khodorkovsky was jailed by the Putin regime for 9 years on charges of fraud and tax evasion. He was pardoned by Putin in 2013, and immediately flown out of the country to Berlin where he sought refuge in Switzerland, and finally to London where he has remained the sharpest critic of the Kremlin among the oligarchs.
Khodorkovsky who owned oil giant, Yukos, established the Open Russia Foundation, in 2001. It was based at Somerset House in London, with Henry Kissinger and Jacob Rothschild as two of its trustees. Open Russia Foundation, along with other NGO’s such as Soros’ Open Society Foundation were banned from Russia in 2017.
Posted on his Instagram page, Khodorkovsky urged Russians to arm themselves:
1) Now we see that only armed people can resist a dictatorship.
2) Prigozhin’s mutiny will end with his or Putin's personal elimination. After that, there will be a reaction and tightening of the screws anyway.
3) So now there is a small window of opportunity when there is chaos in the streets and the security forces are not in control.
4) If you see in yourself the power in the future to become the armed men who will oppose Putin or Prigozhin, then it's time to arm yourselves.
5) Prigozhin is not our friend or even ally. He is a thug and a war criminal. But his rebellion is a unique opportunity, and there won’t be another like it for a long time.
For a more alarming development, we need to go back a month before when Belarus President Lukashenko announced May 25, Russia had transferred nuclear weapons to Belarus where they will stay “indefinitely in storage.” Will Prigozhin’s troops be joining him or is this the end of Wagner PMC?
Prigozhin released an audio message on his Telegram chat. If you’re fluent in Russian you can listen here. Otherwise, a rough audio transcript here. Prigozhin brags about Wagner, claiming it is the best fighting group in the world. He then says “no one has signed any contracts with the DOD.”
He then alleges his forces acted in self-defence, shooting down helicopters and a plane, killing several Russian soldiers. It was not a coup, but rather a protest, he insisted.
According to Prigozhin, Belarusian President Lukashenko has offered Wagner the option to continue legally operating by relocating to Belarus which may answer the nuclear question above. A cynical person might conclude that this entire circus show was a failed power play by Prigozhin, to overthrow Putin and place himself in the Kremlin.
Other, more conspiracy-minded commentators, have already suggested that this is an elaborate ruse to move Wagner and nuclear weapons into Belarus in preparation for an escalation of hostilities by US/NATO. If the West is crazy enough to move American and European soldiers into Ukraine, then Russia is ready. This seems a bit far-fetched. Why not just move the Wagner PMC army into Belarus, thus sending a bold message to the West? There was no sneakiness about moving nuclear weapons into Belarus. It was done right out in the open.
Evgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin is a convicted criminal, who spent 9 years in medium security prison for robbery and fraud. Many of Wagner’s soldiers are former convicts, who were promised their freedom if they served 6 months with Wagner.
Prigozhin owns numerous companies, involved in construction, marketing research, foreign trade and gambling casinos. He also unabashedly admitted to being involved in interference in US elections, stating in November 2022, that, “We have interfered (in U.S. elections), we are interfering and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do.”
In an article by Reuters, Professor Sam Greene, a poli-sci prof from King’s College in London, commented on attempts by Russian trolls and bots to influence the election. He stated the goal was to try to shape the agenda on Ukraine, that Republicans will pursue after the vote. “(The aim is) to get the (Republican) base clamouring for a drawdown in U.S. support for Ukraine.”
In what may be the grand finale of the not-coup, Putin, in a televised address, invited the Wagner fighters to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defence, return home or go to Belarus. Putin claimed that Wagner was “resolutely rejected by society”—despite clips showing Rostov-on-Don residents bringing Wagner troops food as they occupied the city.
My crystal ball says the majority will move to Belarus with their notorious leader. Why would they want to join the Russian military for substantially less pay and be ostracized as traitors? And their prospects for employment in civilian life are probably slim, considering so many have criminal records.
Whether Prigozhin is a hero or a zero is something I will leave for you to decide, dear reader. Until we meet again, here’s a famous quote to help you polish up your Russian skills:
Не приведи Бог видеть русский бунт — бессмысленный и беспощадный.
God forbid to see a Russian rebellion - senseless and merciless.
~ Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin
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All works are narrated by MB Bose. Thank you for your continued support and encouragement.