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In February of 2023, the American military conducted live exercises with the Israeli IDF. The joint operation was billed as “the largest and most significant exercise we have engaged in together, and is intended to demonstrate that the U.S. commitment to Israel's security is ironclad and enduring,” by Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder. There were approximately 6,500 US personnel who joined 1,100 Israeli personnel.
“Throughout the week-long engagement, more than 140 aircraft, 12 naval vessels, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, and multiple-launch rocket systems will be used during this combined, joint, all-domain exercise, increasing our ability to inter-operate on land, in the air, at sea, in space and in cyberspace.”
There were three phases of the exercise, the last finished in July. One of the drills simulated Israel facing a multi-front missile attack that would involve the US deployment of Patriot missile systems. Another drill rehearsed a joint US-Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Stage One
The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th is Stage One of a potential conflict in the Middle East, that could be the beginning of the long anticipated (and dreaded) World War Three. Even if things cool down in the immediate future, hostilities will flare up again in the very near future, and ignite the entire region sooner or later.
This first phase will see skirmishes between smaller militia proxy groups, such as Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have already entered the fray by first off launching cruise missiles at Israel on October 31st. The fact that the missiles got as far as Jordan before being shot down, is not a good sign for the Israeli/USA missile defence shield. In fact, it was Saudi Arabia that shot one of the missiles down.
The Al-Qassam Brigade attacked an IDF army base, just outside of Gaza, a few hundred metres from the sea.
An anti-tank missile was launched on October 17th, along the Lebanon-Israel border that left five Hezbollah fighters dead. This was just one of many skirmishes that have resulted in ten casualties from the Hezbollah ranks. Other anti-tank missiles fired left three people wounded.
Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakkan Fidan, arrived in Beirut on the same day, and he told reporters after meeting with his Lebanese counterpart that the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, “might lead to greater wars. We are doing all we can so that the war does not spread to other countries.”
On November 1st, at approximately 6 pm, mortar shelling from Syria targeted occupied Golan Heights with preliminary reports of hits. Video shows Israeli air defences activated without any alarms being triggered.
Houthi rebel general from Yemen made an official declaration of war against Israel this week, after lobbing several cruise missiles and drones in Israel’s direction.
Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, posted a mysterious clip of him walking in front of a banner.
He gave a speech Friday, November 3rd, where he did not make an overt declaration of war against Israel as was expected. He seems to be preparing for a gradual escalation of Hezbollah’s involvement in the conflict.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself reiterated this position, when he told Israelis they were going into a “long and difficult war.”
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, in an interview November 3rd, stated that “Nasrallah is an experienced and intelligent person, and we must effectively prepare for the possibility that he will calm us down, because he intends to carry out a surprise attack.”
I covered the whole speech in an article earlier this week, touching on the main points:
Stage Two
The next stage of the potential world war that may very quickly emerge, will occur when junior national actors get involved in the conflict, such as Syria and North African nations. Several nations have already vowed they will intervene if Israel continues its incursion into Gaza.
The Syrian president has already promised Hezbollah a Russian-made surface-to-air SA-22 system, otherwise known as the Pantsir-S1. The Russian mercenary organisation Wagner Group, operating out of Syria, will carry out the delivery. This is a powerful system that can knock out aircraft with two twin-barrel 2A38M automatic anti-aircraft guns, while moving, and it has 12 ready to launch missile-containers each containing one 57E6-E command guided surface-to-air missile.
There are significant military forces in the region, and considering the overall unity of Arab nations, it would not be out of the question for many, or all of them to get involved in a broader conflict. The United States and its allies spent 20 years in the Middle East creating havoc by bombing and invading several Muslim nations.
Stage Three
The third stage will open up when the large nations such as Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey join in direct action against Israel and her allies. According to American military analyst, Douglas Macgregor, “If Turkey, Iran and Pakistan get involved, US/NATO can slightly delay Israel's destruction, but not prevent it.”
Israel, along with its Christian allies, live under a magic spell, where they believe Israel is immortal. This flies in the face of history. Israel was already destroyed in 135 AD by the Roman general Hadrian. If Yahweh did not intervene then, why would he intervene now?
Turkish president Erdogan gave a speech before a massive 1.5 million crowd in Istanbul on October 28th:
“Oh West! I am calling on you. Do you want to start a Crescent-Crusader conflict again?”
In an announcement he stressed:
“If the countries of the region are ready to cooperate together, then we as Turkey are also ready to participate! We believe that Israel, which seems to have completely lost its mind and is behaving like an organization, must be stopped as soon as possible. A new security mechanism must be created with the cooperation of existing forces in the region. If such a step is taken, we as Turkey are ready to make our contribution.”
After Erdogan’s speech, thousands of Turkish people were out on the streets burning American flags, and chanting “Murderer America, Murderer Israel!” The Turks are asking U.S. diplomats to leave Turkey immediately.
It is rumoured that Pakistan will supply nuclear weapons to both Turkey and Iran if Israel decides to use nuclear weapons, against them in a near-future scenario. Nuclear-armed North Korea is already supplying arms to Hamas, according to the Korean NIS (National Intelligence Service).
Turning to Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran Quds trained and equipped 500 Hamas fighters earlier in the year. Ghazi Hamad, a Hamas spokesman, meanwhile told the BBC that the group had direct backing for the attack from Iran.
Iran also opened a website where people could volunteer to fight, and it reported that more than six million volunteered. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned that Islamic resistance was going to become unstoppable should the war continue.
And last but not least, in the long game, assuming things unfold in the general fashion of a Three Stage War, when Russia gets drawn into the war, it will be the supreme escalation, because Russia still has formidable nuclear weapons that rival the United States. It also has hypersonic missiles that the United States and Israel have no defence against.
Conclusion
The events we are witnessing on the world stage are the culmination of over a hundred years, at the very minimum, of alliances, grievances, failed treaties and grudges nursed for generations. We do not have a crystal ball to predict exactly how things will unfold, though it is certain that things must come to a head. The seeds of war that were planted long ago must eventually grow and reap a harvest of destruction.
Acknowledgements to Brian Mitchell’s first-class research which is the inspiration for this article. Find him on Facebook.
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This Is The First Stage Of WW3
The first few paragraphs read like a pandemic preparedness response meeting 😆